Value at Risk Calculations, Extreme Events, and Tail Estimation

نویسنده

  • SALIH N. NEFTCI
چکیده

THE JOURNAL OF DERIVATIVES 1 The notion of extreme movements in asset prices is implicit in current risk management practices. Capital adequacy assumes a threshold that classifies observed changes in market risk factors either as extreme or ordinary. A probability is first chosen to measure the “extremeness” of events that may affect a particular portfolio. This probability then determines the proper threshold.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Reduced-bias estimators for the Distortion Risk Premiums for Heavy-tailed distributions

Estimation of the occurrence of extreme events actually is that of risk premiums interest in actuarial Sciences, Insurance and Finance. Heavy-tailed distributions are used to model large claims and losses. In this paper we deal with the empirical estimation of the distortion risk premiums for heavy tailed losses by using the extreme value statistics. This approach can produce a potential bias i...

متن کامل

Estimation Error in the Assessment of Financial Risk Exposure

Value at Risk and similar measures of financial risk exposure require predicting the tail of an asset returns distribution. Assuming a specific form, such as the normal, for the distribution, the standard deviation (and possibly other parameters) are estimated from recent historical data and the tail cutoff value is computed. But this standard procedure ignores estimation error, which we find t...

متن کامل

A comparison of extreme value theory approaches for determining value at risk

This paper compares a number of different extreme value models for determining the value at risk of three LIFFE futures contracts. A semi-nonparametric approach is also proposed where the tail events are modeled using the Generalised Pareto Distribution and normal market conditions are captured by the empirical distribution function. The value at risk estimates from this approach are compared w...

متن کامل

Can we use kernel smoothing to estimate Value at Risk and Tail Value at Risk?

In this paper we analyse nonparametric methods to estimate risk measures in loss distributions. We study kernel estimation for Value-at-Risk and Tail Value-at-Risk based on transformation of the original data. The proposed method consists of a double transformation kernel estimation. We show that a suitable bandwidth selection criterion has a direct expression for the optimal smoothing paramete...

متن کامل

Nonparametric estimation of tail dependence

Dependencies of extreme events (extremal dependencies) are attracting an increasing attention in modern risk management. In practice, the concept of tail dependence represents the current standard to describe the amount of extremal dependence. In theory, multivariate extreme-value theory (EVT) turns out to be the natural choice to model the latter dependencies. The present paper embeds tail dep...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2000